TLDR
- Arthur Hayes says crypto is in a “no-trade zone” due to AI disruption and the US-Iran war
- He outlines three scenarios that could push Bitcoin to $80,000–$90,000
- Hayes will not buy more Bitcoin until the Fed signals it will print money
- He is only adding gold and Hyperliquid’s HYPE token to his portfolio
- Hayes predicts Hyperliquid will take market share from Polymarket and Kalshi
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, says he has barely traded in the first quarter of 2025. In a post published April 15, he describes the current crypto market as a “no-trade zone.”
“No Trade Zone” discusses the impact on $BTC based on whether the Strait of Hormuz is open or closed. pic.twitter.com/spNEjrnPI7
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) April 16, 2026
He says two main forces are behind his caution: the rise of AI agents replacing knowledge workers, and the US-Iran conflict over the Strait of Hormuz.
Hayes believes AI replacing workers could trigger a wave of consumer credit defaults. He compares the potential fallout to the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis.
He says companies are already cutting staff. He shared an example of a crypto gaming CEO who used AI to complete a six-month roadmap in four days, then cut 50% of his team.
The US median unemployment payout is around $28,000 a year. The median knowledge worker earns $85,000 to $90,000. Hayes says that gap will lead to mass loan defaults at banks.
Three Scenarios for Bitcoin
Hayes lays out three possible outcomes tied to the war.
In the first, the war ends and things return to normal. But AI deflation continues, and the Fed will eventually need to print money to prevent a banking collapse.
In the second, Iran keeps control of the Strait of Hormuz and charges tolls in yuan, crypto, or gold. Nations sell US dollar assets to pay the toll, putting pressure on treasuries, stocks, and Bitcoin.
In the third, the US military destroys Iran’s ability to control the strait. But Hayes says Iran would likely retaliate by hitting Gulf energy infrastructure, forcing global central banks to print money.
In all three cases, Hayes says money printing eventually arrives. But he will not buy Bitcoin until the Fed acts. He says Bitcoin could spike to $80,000–$90,000, but the risk-reward is not there yet.
Hayes Backs Gold and HYPE
Bitcoin is up over 7% in the past week, trading above $75,000. Hayes says that slight outperformance over US software stocks is encouraging but not yet enough to change his view.
He says the one signal he is watching is the MOVE Index, which tracks US bond market volatility. If it rises above 130, he expects some form of money printing to follow.
For now, Hayes says Maelstrom is only adding gold and Hyperliquid’s HYPE token. Gold is trading near $4,830, up around 1% on the day. HYPE is up 18% over the past week, trading at $45.31.
Hayes says Hyperliquid’s upcoming HIP-4 launch will drive a large rally in HYPE. He predicts the platform will take market share from prediction market competitors Polymarket and Kalshi.
HYPE is up 18% over the past seven days, trading at $45.31 at time of writing.
