The longer Bitcoin remains rangebound, the more likely it is to fall further as the bear market deepens.
Bitcoin is “range-bound under pressure,” having broken below the “True Market Mean,” slipping into a “defensive range toward the Realized Price,” of around $55,000, reported Glassnode on Wednesday. The on-chain analytics provider remained bearish, noting that demand across spot and derivative markets was weak.
“Spot flows and ETF demand remain weak, accumulation is fragile, and options positioning shows panic hedging fading, but not renewed bullish conviction.”
Glassnode noted that historically, deeper bear market phases have found their lower structural boundary around the Realized Price. This is a measure of the average acquisition cost of all circulating coins, which now stands near $54,900.
This level is almost 18% lower than current prices and would put the fall from peak to 56.4%, which is much shallower than the last two bear markets.
Market in Controlled Consolidation
The analysts also noted that the Accumulation Trend Score sits near 0.43, well short of the 1.0 level that would signal serious large-entity buying.
Spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD), which tracks the difference between market buy orders and market sell orders over time, has turned firmly negative across major exchanges such as Binance and Coinbase, meaning sellers are in control.
Glassnode concluded that the market is “transitioning from reactive liquidation to controlled consolidation.”
“For a durable recovery to emerge, renewed spot demand, sustained accumulation, and improving liquidity conditions will be required.”
Range-Bound Under Pressure
Bitcoin has broken below the True Market Mean, slipping into a defensive range toward the Realized Price (~$54.9k). Spot and ETF demand remain weak, and panic hedging has eased.
Read the full Week On-Chain???? https://t.co/XAp8OQr65i pic.twitter.com/iLuDT8o50v
— glassnode (@glassnode) February 18, 2026
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Bitcoin network activity has also collapsed, according to Santiment, which reported on Wednesday that there have been large declines in new and unique addresses as Bitcoin’s utility declined in 2025.
“A justification for crypto beginning to see a true long-term relief rally will be when metrics like active addresses and network growth begin to rise.”
“BTC is still strengthening its bear trend,” observed analyst Willy Woo, who said that volatility is a key metric to detect trends. Bitcoin entered its bear market when volatility spiked upwards quickly, he said, before adding:
“Volatility then continues to climb, meaning the bear trend is strengthening. Then volatility finds a peak in the mid to late phase bear market… that’s when the bear trend starts to weaken.”
BTC Price Outlook
Bitcoin continues to weaken, dropping below $66,000 briefly in late trading on Wednesday. It came just shy of $67,000 during the Thursday morning Asian trading session, but had not reclaimed it at the time of writing.
The asset has been trading sideways for the past two weeks, and the path of least resistance appears to be downwards.
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