Cardano Founder Charles Hoskinson Says Quantum Threat to Crypto is Overhyped

TLDR

• Cardano’s Charles Hoskinson claims the quantum threat to blockchain is overstated today.
• Quantum-proof blockchain technology exists but comes with significant performance costs.
• The industry will need standardized guidance before migrating to quantum-secure systems.
• Hoskinson expects meaningful quantum pressure on blockchain in the 2030s.

Charles Hoskinson, the founder of Cardano, has addressed concerns over the impact of quantum computing on blockchain technology. He asserts that the threat posed by quantum computing to cryptocurrencies is currently overstated and not an immediate risk. In a recent podcast discussion, Hoskinson referred to the quantum threat as a “big red herring,” emphasizing that while quantum-resistant cryptography exists, its adoption would come at a significant cost in terms of both speed and expense.

Hoskinson’s remarks were aimed at easing fears in the blockchain industry about an impending quantum disruption. He made it clear that although quantum-secure protocols are available, the trade-offs in performance—about ten times slower and more expensive—make their adoption unappealing for most networks. As blockchain networks strive for high transaction throughput, such a drastic reduction in speed would not be acceptable, he pointed out.

The Need for Standardization in Quantum-Secure Cryptography

One of the core issues Hoskinson highlighted is the lack of standardized quantum-secure cryptographic protocols. He stressed that the blockchain industry should wait for standardized guidance, which is being developed by organizations like the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). NIST’s post-quantum cryptography program, including standards FIPS 203–206, is aimed at ensuring that quantum-resistant algorithms are not only secure but also efficient.

According to Hoskinson, the lack of standardization presents a risk for blockchain developers. Without these standards, networks may adopt quantum-resistant protocols that are inefficient or unsupported in the future. He explained that choosing non-standard solutions could result in performance penalties, making blockchain networks slower and more costly to run. Until NIST finalizes the standards and hardware vendors begin aligning with them, blockchain networks will likely avoid premature quantum-proof upgrades.

The Quantum Threat Timeline and DARPA’s Role

While many researchers believe quantum computing could disrupt blockchain security, Hoskinson and other experts agree that this threat is still some years away. He pointed to DARPA’s Quantum Blockchain Initiative (QBI) as a key reference for understanding the timeline for quantum computing advancements. The initiative, which is exploring the scalability of practical quantum computers, suggests that real concerns for quantum blockchain security are unlikely to arise before the 2030s.

Hoskinson cited the QBI’s evaluation of 11 companies working on quantum computing and stated that the military, in particular, needs to know when it will be necessary to upgrade its cryptographic systems. The work being done by DARPA, he noted, serves as the clearest benchmark for understanding when quantum computers capable of breaking current encryption might be available at scale.

When Will Blockchains Need to Migrate to Quantum-Resistant Systems?

While the quantum threat is real, Hoskinson’s message is clear: blockchain networks do not need to rush into migration. The pressure to adopt quantum-secure systems will increase gradually, with most experts predicting that meaningful migration could begin in the 2030s.

 The focus for blockchain developers, according to Hoskinson, should be on ensuring that systems are both efficient and aligned with evolving hardware accelerations for quantum-resistant cryptography.

Currently, the cost, latency, and lack of ecosystem alignment prevent widespread adoption of quantum-resistant protocols in the blockchain space. Despite the slow pace of adoption, Hoskinson reassured listeners that the technology is already being tested and developed, with NIST-approved hardware and algorithms paving the way for a future transition when the quantum threat becomes more tangible.