TLDRs;
- Carvana stock gained 2.4% after Vanguard disclosed an 11.86% ownership stake in the company.
- Jefferies maintains a Buy rating and $550 price target, citing strong December sales data.
- Retail unit growth and investor flows drive optimism as Carvana navigates high financing costs.
- Upcoming February earnings will be closely watched for margins, unit growth, and inventory updates.
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Carvana Co. (CVNA) shares climbed 2.4% on Wednesday following news that The Vanguard Group held a significant stake in the online used-car retailer.
Carvana Co., CVNA
According to a regulatory filing, Vanguard owned 16,783,099 Carvana shares as of December 31, representing 11.86% of the company’s common stock. The stock closed at $450.78 and traded slightly higher in extended hours at $451.26.
Vanguard Stake Lifts Investor Confidence
The disclosure of Vanguard’s holdings has provided a boost to investors seeking clarity on Carvana’s demand trends and market positioning. Carvana experienced a remarkable 2025, nearly doubling its stock price and earning inclusion in the S&P 500 Index in December.
This index inclusion drew steady inflows from passive funds, while simultaneously raising expectations for the company’s upcoming earnings report. Analysts say Vanguard’s stake, held passively without intent to influence control, is seen as a positive signal by the market.
Jefferies Signals December Sales Strength
Jefferies reaffirmed its Buy rating on Carvana, maintaining a $550 price target. Analysts cited preliminary “web-scrape” data, automated collection of public online listings and traffic signals, suggesting that Carvana’s retail units experienced strong growth in December.
According to Jefferies, fourth-quarter retail units could increase by 44%, implying a 7% upside relative to consensus forecasts. The firm also raised its fourth-quarter EBITDA projection to $522 million, underscoring growing momentum heading into year-end.
Carvana’s Growth Faces Profitability Test
While unit growth is encouraging, investors remain cautious about whether Carvana can translate higher sales into consistent profits. High financing costs and consumer reliance on monthly payment plans present challenges to margins. Industry observers note that web-scrape data can sometimes be noisy, and growth in retail units does not automatically ensure profitability.
Any slowdown in unit trends or margin compression could weigh on a stock that has already factored in significant improvement.
The broader used-car sector generally mirrored Carvana’s performance. CarMax shares surged 5.35%, while ACV Auctions fell 0.94%, and OPENLANE declined 2.5%, reflecting mixed investor sentiment across the market.
Eyes on February Earnings Report
The next focal point for Carvana investors is the company’s expected earnings report around February 18. Analysts and market participants will closely monitor retail unit growth, gross profit per vehicle, and updates on financing and inventory management strategies.
Strong execution in these areas could reinforce optimism, while any missteps might trigger a reassessment of the stock’s near-term trajectory.
As investors digest the combined signals of institutional backing and year-end sales momentum, Carvana’s stock performance continues to demonstrate the delicate balance between growth potential and profitability pressures. With Vanguard’s stake and Jefferies’ positive outlook supporting sentiment, the company enters 2026 with both opportunity and risk clearly in view.
