The cryptocurrency market is eagerly awaiting the next altcoin bull run, and according to market analysts, the local bottom for altcoins could occur as early as June. However, for a significant altcoin rally to take place, Bitcoin’s price needs to break out to the upside first.
TLDR
- Altcoins could find their local bottom around the beginning of June, based on historical chart patterns, according to crypto analyst Rekt Capital.
- The altcoin market cap, excluding the top 10 cryptocurrencies, fell over 21% in the past month to $265 billion but is still up 24% year-to-date and 167% over the past year.
- For a significant altcoin bull run, Bitcoin price needs to break out to the upside, according to Aurelie Barthere, principal research analyst at Nansen.
- Bitcoin’s 200-day moving average recently broke above $50,000 for the first time, a significant milestone as it is widely regarded as a pivotal indicator delineating bull and bear market cycles.
- Pantera Capital predicts that Bitcoin’s price will peak at $117,000 in August 2025, based on the average duration of previous rallies and the impact of Bitcoin halving events on price.
Popular crypto analyst Rekt Capital suggests that based on historical chart patterns, altcoins could find their local price bottom around the beginning of June, marking the start of the next altcoin bull cycle.
Despite a 21% drop in the altcoin market cap (excluding the top 10 cryptocurrencies) over the past month, the market is still up 24% year-to-date and an impressive 167% over the past year.
$ALTS
Altcoins are following the plan perfectly…
Altcoins bottomed in early February ✅
Altcoins sold off around the #BTC Halving ✅
Altcoins to bottom early Summer ⏱️$BTC #BitcoinHalving #Bitcoin https://t.co/g5QUFID6jg pic.twitter.com/ZYC6uhrMVl
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) May 8, 2024
Altcoin sentiment is historically correlated with Bitcoin’s price, and a prolonged consolidation period may be in store due to the lack of sufficient new liquidity from Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. and Hong Kong, according to Alex Onufriychuk, blockchain adviser and coach at Qubic Labs Accelerator.
He believes that for a significant turnaround, more fundamental changes are required, such as increased retail and institutional investment and favorable regulatory developments.
Bitcoin’s price action has been closely monitored, with the 200-day moving average (DMA) recently breaking above $50,000 for the first time.
This milestone is significant as the 200DMA is widely regarded as a pivotal indicator delineating bull and bear market cycles. In previous cycles, holding above the 200DMA was a bullish signal, while breaking down through it often presaged bearish momentum. Bitcoin’s ability to maintain prices over $50,443 could reinforce the uptrend.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin whales have intensified their accumulation despite the coin’s recent decline below $62,000.
According to on-chain data provider Santiment, BTC whales holding between 1,000 and 10,000 coins accumulated 15,121 BTC valued at $930 million between May 7th and 8th, pushing the cohort’s total BTC holding to its highest level in 14 days.
???? As #Bitcoin ranges tightly between $61K and $64K, large whales have made some accumulation moves over the past 24 hours. Wallets with 1K-10K $BTC have collectively accumulated ~$941M worth of coins, rebounding to their highest holding level in 2 weeks. https://t.co/NkYwRsc8Pd pic.twitter.com/LWAt03TgUP
— Santiment (@santimentfeed) May 8, 2024
However, bearish sentiments remain significant, with Bitcoin recently crossing below its 20-day simple moving average (SMA), putting it at risk of a further decline in the short term.
If the bears strengthen their position, they may pull the coin’s price down to the support line of BTC’s descending channel pattern, potentially leading to a price around $57,000.
Despite the short-term volatility, venture capital firm Pantera Capital remains optimistic about the future of Bitcoin’s price. In a recent investor letter, the firm revealed its Bitcoin Halving rallies model, which predicts a bottoming out of the BTC price followed by a rise through the Halving rally.
Based on the average duration of previous rallies, Pantera Capital forecasts that BTC’s price will peak at $117,000 in August 2025.
The firm highlights the relationship between Halving events and BTC’s price, asserting that if the demand for new Bitcoin remains constant while the supply of new Bitcoin is reduced by half, it will create upward pressure on the price. The anticipation of a price increase has also historically driven increased demand for Bitcoin leading up to Halving events.
While altcoins may find their local bottom in June, a significant bull run will likely require Bitcoin to break out to the upside first. Despite short-term volatility and bearish sentiments, long-term projections for Bitcoin’s price remain bullish, with Pantera Capital predicting a peak of $117,000 by August 2025.
As the cryptocurrency market continues to evolve, investors and enthusiasts alike will be closely monitoring the interplay between Bitcoin and altcoins, as well as the impact of fundamental factors such as institutional investment and regulatory developments.
