The unprecedented events surrounding this bull season, like bitcoin (BTC) hitting an all-time high before the halving, have led traders to think the digital asset may follow a pattern not seen in past cycles.
Recently, there have been speculations that BTC may complete its bull run this year or by January 2025. However, some market analysts have stuck to their strategies and insist that bitcoin’s pathway in this cycle will be similar to the patterns seen during the bull runs in 2016 and 2020.
BTC Top in October 2025
In a tweet, the pseudonymous analyst Rekt Capital predicted that the best for this bitcoin bull run will come in October 2025. The market participant derived this data from analyzing past cycles that saw BTC hit its top for each bull run over 500 days after each halving event.
Rekt Capital revealed that BTC bottomed 547 days before the 2016 halving and hit the cycle’s top 518 days after the event. The cryptocurrency took the same path in 2020/2021, bottoming 517 days prior to the halving and topping in a bull run 549 days after its completion.
The 2024 halving occurred in mid-April, and BTC bottomed 517 days before the event. Analyzing historical patterns, the halving acts as a mirror; BTC hits its bear market bottoms and bull season tops after a similar number of days before and after the event. Hence, the best of the leading cryptocurrency’s bull run is expected to be seen approximately 549 days after the last halving, around October 2025.
Bull Market Progress at Roughly 50%
Contrary to several opinions that selling BTC at $90,000 is a good idea, Rekt Capital believes the market still has a long way to go because the asset is in a parabolic phase. While BTC is seeing some rejection at $90,000, the analyst’s strategy shows that the bull market progress is barely 50%. When bitcoin hovered around $84,000 a few days ago, the trader said the progress was at 47.8%.
Meanwhile, Rekt Capital believes BTC could see a few more days of price discovery before experiencing a deeper correction. Historical patterns in the 2017 cycle show that BTC witnessed eight weeks of upside in price discovery before a major correction. A similar pattern was recorded in 2021, with BTC rallying four weeks into price discovery before a deep correction.
In this cycle, BTC has only rallied into price discovery for one week. As the asset is in a parabolic phase, Rekt Capital thinks there could be a few more days of upside before any major pullback.
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